The Leipzig Declaration

On Global Climate Change

As scientists, we - along with our fellow citizens - are intensely interested in the possibility that human activities may affect the global climate; indeed, land clearing and urban growth have been changing local climates for centuries. Historically, climate has always been a factor in human affairs - with warmer periods, such as the medieval "climate optimum", playong an important role in economic expansion and in the welfare of nations that depend primarily on agriculture. For these reasons we must always remain sensitive to activities that could affect future climate.

Attention has recently been focused on the increasing emission of "greenhouse" gases into the atmosphere. International discussions by political leaders are currently underway that could constrain energy use and mandate reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Although we understand the motivation to eliminate what are perceived to be the driving forces behind a potential climate change, we believe this approach may be dangerously simplistic. Based on the evidence available to us, we cannot subscribe to the so-called"scientific consensus" that envisages climate catastrophes and advocates hasty actions.

As the debate unfolds, it has become increasingly clear that - contrary to conventional wisdom - there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming from rising levels of carbon dioxide. On the contrary, most scientists now accept the fact that actual observations from earth satellites show no climate warming whatsoever. And to match this fact, the mathematical climate models are becoming more realistic and are forecasting temperature increases that are only 30 percent of what was considered the "best" value just four years ago.

We consider the Global Climate Treaty concluded in Rio de Janeiro at the 1992 "Earth Summit" to be unrealistic; its goal is stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases, which requires that fuel use be cut by 60-80 percent worldwide! Energy is essential for all economic growth, and fossil fuels provide today's principal global energy source. In a world in which poverty is the greatest social pollutant, any restriction on energy use that inhibits economic growth should be viewed with caution. For this reason, we consider "carbon taxes" and other drastic control policies - lacking credible support from the underlying science - to be ill-advised, premature, wrought economic danger, and likely to be counterproductive.

This statement is based on the International Symposium on the Greenhouse Controversy, held in Leipzig, Germany on November 9-10, 1995, under the sponsorship of the Prime Minister of the State of Saxony. For further information, contact the Europaeische Akademie fuer Umweltfragen (fax +49-7071-72939) or The Science and Environmental Policy Project in Fairfax, Virginia (fax +1-703-352-7535).

Leipzig Declaration Signatories

Abrams, Elliot Penn. State Univ.; Apel, John Johns Hopkins University; Aubrey, David Woods Hole Ocean. Inst.; Badura, Leslaw Univ. Kattowitz, Poland; Balling, Robert Arizona State Univ.; Barrett, Jack Kingston-upon-Thames, U.K.; Bauer, Ernst-Waldemar Esslingen, Germany; Berg, Hermann Sachsisch Akad., Jena, Germany; Berning, Warren New Mexico State Univ.; Boe, Bruce A. Atm. Resource Brd, ND; Bourne, Arthur Univ. of London; Brace, Larry Goddard Space Flight Center, MD; Bye, Matthew meteorologist, San Francisco; Cain, Joseph Florida State Univ.; Clube, S.V.M. Univ of Oxford; Courtney, Richard Epsom, U.K.; Csanady, G.T. Old Dominion Univ.; Cunningham, Robert M. meteor., Lincoln, Mass.; Decker, Fred meteor., Corvalis, OR Del Re, Giuseppe Rome; Dietze, Peter Nurnberg, Germany; Dyer, Rosemary Phillips Lab; Ellsaesser, Hugh Livermore Nat'l Lab.; Frank, Neil fmr dir. - Hurricane Center; Franzle, Otto Univ. Kiel, Germany; Gaynor, John E. Envir. Tech. Lab. Boulder, CO; Gerholm, Tor Ragnar Univ. of Stockholm; Gleeson, Thomas A. aeronomist, Florida State Univ.; Gold, Thomas Cornell Univ.; Goodell, H. G. Univ. of Virginia; Goodridge, James D. climatologist, Mendocino, CA; Groeber, Richard F. Dick's Weather Service, Springfield OH; Guttman, Nathaniel B. Nat'l Climactic Data Center, Ashville NC; Hales, J. Vern meteor., Las Vegas NV; Hayden, Howard C. Univ. of Conn.; Heyke, H. H. Lichtenwalde, Germany; Higatsberger, Michael J. Univ. of Vienna; Hogan, A. W. Jour. of Aerosols, Atm. Chem.; Hubbard, William Univ. of Arizona; Kloke, Adolf Univ. of Berlin; Kohler, Max A. meteor., Silver Springs, MD; Kolstad, George A. geophys., Laytonsville, MD; Korber, Erich Univ. Tubingen, Germany; Kovach, Robert L. Stanford Univ.; Leep, Roy meteor., Tampa, FL; Legates, David R. Univ. of Oklahoma; Lettau, Heinz H. Univ. of Wisconsin; Linden, Henry R. Illinois Inst. of Technology; Lischka, Gerd Univ. Tubingen, Germany; Lodge, J. P. atmos. chemist, Boulder CO; Lunsford, R. Dwayne Germantown, MD; Marquardt, Karl Dornstadt-Auhausen, Germany; McVehil, George E. Air Quality & Meteor., Englewood, CO; Mellner, Dusan Univ. of Brno, Czech Republic; Metzner, Helmut Tubingen, Germany; Michaels, Patrick Univ. of Virginia; Mitchell, William Univ. of Oxford; Mohry, Herbert Leipzig, Germany; Neumann, Eberhard Univ. Bielefeld, Germany; Nierenberg, William A. Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, LaJolla; Nolte, Dieter Stadt, Krankenhaus, Bad Reichenhall, Germany; Oberhammer, Heinz Univ. Tubingen, Germany; Porch, William Colorado State Univ.; Reifsnyder, W. E. Yale Univ.; Seitz, Frederick Rockefeller Univ. Sestak, Zdenek Univ. of Prague; Singer, S. Fred Univ. of Virginia; Stange, Karl Ludwigshafen, Germany; Starr, Chauncey Electrical Power Research Inst., Palo Alto; Steinmetz, E. Essen, Germany; Stevenson, Robert E. IAPSO; Stout, Glenn E. Univ. of Illinois; Stroke, George Max Planck Inst. Munich; Sundermann, Heinz Univ. of Vienna; Sussman, Brian meteorologist, San Francisco; Sutton, George H. Prof. Emeritus, Univ. of Hawaii; Svidersky, Vladimir Sechenoc Institute, Moscow; Talwani, M. Rice Univ.; Torrance, Thomas F. Jena, Germany; Van Sumere, Christaan Univ. of Gent, Belgium; Vonnegut, Bernard SUNY, Albany; Wentworth, Robert C. geophys. Oakland, CA; Worzel, J. Lamar meteor. Wilmington, NC; Wyrtki, Klaus Univ. of Hawaii; Zwiener, Ulrich Univ. Jena, Germany; es - lacking credible support from the underlying science - to be ill-advised, premature, wrought economic danger, and likely to be counterproductive.